🟥 Cardinals Sin or Smart Value? We’re Backing St. Louis +140 vs. Skenes & the Bucs

Let’s get this out of the way first: Paul Skenes is a problem. The Pirates rookie phenom comes into tonight’s game with a glistening 2.12 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, and a WAR that’s already creeping toward elite territory. He looks every bit the future ace Pittsburgh fans have been dreaming about. So... why are we backing the Cardinals? Because price matters — and tonight’s price is flat-out wrong.

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The Play
✅ Bet: St. Louis Cardinals +140

LineProphet.com powerlines

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Model Prediction
St. Louis 4.29
Pittsburgh 3.86

LineProphet.com prediction

Our model gives the Cardinals a slight edge on the scoreboard and an even bigger edge at the window.

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PowerLine vs. Vegas Line
PowerLine: STL -103
Vegas Line: STL +140

That’s a massive gap. The model’s implied win probability for St. Louis is 50.74%, while the books are giving them just 41.67%. That’s nearly a 9% edge, and for a line this juicy, that’s the kind of value we don’t ignore — even if the matchup on the mound looks scary.

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Why We’re Fading Skenes (Sort Of)

Look, this isn’t an anti-Skenes take. He’s the real deal. But no pitcher is invincible — and the Cardinals lineup has the tools to make life uncomfortable.

St. Louis holds the advantage in batting average, OBP, slugging, home runs, and RBIs. They’ve faced tougher pitching staffs than this and still produced, and if they can work the count and get into Pittsburgh’s bullpen early, things could turn quickly.

They also have the edge defensively, with a stronger team fielding percentage and fewer costly errors on the season.

😳 -- Don't look at this actually

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The Trend You Didn’t Know You Needed

It’s Tuesday. And historically, that’s been good news for the Cardinals — who’ve won 54.55% of their Tuesday games this year.

Pittsburgh? A pitiful 23.08% win rate on Tuesdays. We’re not saying the day of the week makes the difference… but we’re not not saying it either.

LineProphet.com Head to Head data

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Final Word

Yes, we’re stepping in front of a young ace. But it’s not about beating Skenes — it’s about beating the number. And +140 is flat-out mispriced for a team the model sees as the better side.

We’ll take the value. You can take the drama.

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