Avoiding the Sweep

Can the Dodgers avoid getting swept by the Marlins in this EARLY morning last game of the series.

Keith Waggoner

2 minute read

Summary:
Dodgers enter this game having lost 3 in a row on the road in Miami. I’m not sure if it’s the upcoming All-Star break or just bad luck but the Dodgers had won 9 in a row before entering this series only to drop 3 in a row to the Marlins. I think that trend stops today. I will take a look at a few key factors in today’s early matchup that have me backing the Dodgers at a steep price. After all can they really get swept by a team who is currently in last in the NL East? I sure hope not.

schedule

Pitching:
We get Julio Urias (Dodgers) vs. Sandy Alcantara in the final match of this series. Both pitchers have similar numbers but it’s the strikeout rate (27.4%) for Urias that has me feeling confident in his ability this morning. He also has a slight advantage in another key stat, xFIP. I tend to look at xFIP closely has it is a very predictive number when trying to determine what to expect from a pitcher. Although it isn’t much Urias comes in with a 3.5 xFIP compared to his opponent who is sitting at a 3.85. I think the Dodgers back one of their main guys with some good ABs and avoid a sweep against not a very good team in the Marlins.

pitching

Offense:
As you would expect the Dodgers have better offensive numbers in almost every major category measured by Line Prophet’s algorithms. One key number I want to focus on today is the 419 RBIs the Dodgers have on the season compared to just 322 by Miami. With the pitching matchup being so close I think it’s the Dodgers’ offense that will help them avoid the sweep this morning. We have a wind blowing towards left-field which I hope will increase the Dodgers' 112 HR total on the season. One of my favorites stats to look at when trying to determine an offense’s success probability is the slugging %. This is good for us as the Dodgers have a .411 verse just a .373 for the Marlins. That should help create some separation at some point today. We are going to back the Dodgers bats to get the job done in the final game of the series.

offense

line movement

Play: Dodgers -150

Confidence: 4/5

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