Summary:
Dodgers enter this game having lost 3 in a row on the road in Miami. I’m not sure if it’s the upcoming All-Star break or just bad luck but the Dodgers had won 9 in a row before entering this series only to drop 3 in a row to the Marlins. I think that trend stops today. I will take a look at a few key factors in today’s early matchup that have me backing the Dodgers at a steep price. After all can they really get swept by a team who is currently in last in the NL…

Pitching: As the blog title suggests one of the main factors that went into this pick is the pitching matchup. I trust Lynn. I don’t trust Pineda. As you can see from the image below Lynn comes in with about half the ERA (2.02) of Pineda (4.00) and that is just the beginning. Lynn also dominates Pineda in strikeout percentage, xFIP, and BABIP all of which are key factors the Line Prophet algorithm takes into account. In Lynn’s last start he went six innings and allowed just 1…

Line Movement: Both teams opened up at -105 but quickly went off in different directions. We are going to pick up the Blue Jays at a slightly worse line (-120) than their opening number, while the Rays have become slight dogs at +110. This line movement is natural as most of the money (67%) is coming in on Toronto. It’s worth noting that when these two teams met on May 24th, 2021 both lines closed at -105. The Rays had Yarbrough on the mound against the Blue Jays' Trent Thorton and…