Pitching: As the blog title suggests one of the main factors that went into this pick is the pitching matchup. I trust Lynn. I don’t trust Pineda. As you can see from the image below Lynn comes in with about half the ERA (2.02) of Pineda (4.00) and that is just the beginning. Lynn also dominates Pineda in strikeout percentage, xFIP, and BABIP all of which are key factors the Line Prophet algorithm takes into account. In Lynn’s last start he went six innings and allowed just 1 run. This is in direct contrast to Pineda who allowed 3 runs in only four innings.

Prediction: The Line Prophet algorithm is in agreement with what Vegas is predicting. As the screenshot below suggests the White Sox finish this series with a similar line to yesterday’s matchup at -125. Road favorites are hitting at a high rate this year so that trend backs our analysis. There has been almost no line movement, but we see some books get as high as -135 for the White Sox. The Line Prophet algorithm puts the twins at +118 underdogs, so we find some value in the power difference.

Offense: We have two identical offenses in this one. As you can see in the screenshot below there is almost no major statistical difference between the two. We will have a slight breeze to the NNW, which in this ballpark means it will be blowing in. We will hope that can keep some balls in the ballpark eliminate the home run advantage for the Twins. Against a pitcher who has been struggling recently I love the fact that the White Sox have the better OBP. Hopefully Pineda will give us some free base runners and the dominant RBI number for the White Sox means they will drive them in!

Play: White Sox -125

Confidence: 3/5

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