Line Movement: Both teams opened up at -105 but quickly went off in different directions. We are going to pick up the Blue Jays at a slightly worse line (-120) than their opening number, while the Rays have become slight dogs at +110. This line movement is natural as most of the money (67%) is coming in on Toronto. It’s worth noting that when these two teams met on May 24th, 2021 both lines closed at -105. The Rays had Yarbrough on the mound against the Blue Jays' Trent Thorton and ended up winning 14-8. I expect a different result here as the pitching matchup is a little more favorable for the Blue Jays at home.

Pitching: We get Luis Patino (TB) vs. Alek Manoah (TOR) in this one. Both pitchers come in with respectable numbers. While Manoah has a slightly better ERA, when we take a closer look we realize Patino makes up for this difference with his xFIP (3.96 vs. Manoah 4.47). I always look at BABIP as one of the key indicators for a pitcher’s expected result, and thankfully this favors Manoah at (0.214), although both pitchers do have a respectable number.

Offense: This is where we love being on the Blue Jays tonight. They are the much better and more consistent offensive team. SLG is one of my favorite numbers to look at for an offenses' expected result. This is good for us as the Blue Jays have a .452 vs just a .393 for the Rays. They are also leaving the yard far more often than the Rays, which will come into play at their home ballpark this evening. The Blue Jays lead the Rays in almost every key offense stat the Line Prophet algorithm takes into account.

Play: Blue Jays -120

Confidence: 4/5

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