Line Movement: We saw the Reds open up at -105 and then quickly jump to -120. At the same time the Padres moved in the other direction from -115 all the way up to +110. These aren’t huge jumps, but very telling as the team who lost the last two games in this series is becoming more of a favorite as the day moves on. Yesterday wasn’t a favorable pitching matchup for the Reds albeit, but they were +165 dogs. We will talk about the pitching later in this article but it doesn’t lean far either way. I think we see an inspired Reds team and they get the win tonight

Pitching: At face value there doesn’t seem to be much of a pitching advantage anywhere in the matchup. Luis Castillo even appears to be at a disadvantage to Ryan Weathers in many key statistics. We will look to one of my favorite stats (xFIP) to find a slight advantage for Castillo. Pitcured below on the screenshot from the Line Prophet Platform you can see Castillo (right) holds a nice advantage there.

Play: Reds -120

Confidence: 4/5

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