Line Prophet

After a sharp Oilers win to open the Stanley Cup Final, we’re sliding back into baseball with tonight’s value play out of Philly. It’s the Blue Jays and Phillies facing off, and while the books are slightly leaning toward the home squad, our model sees things a little differently — but still leans red and white. With Jesús Luzardo on the bump and the Phillies swinging hot bats, we’re not overthinking this one. Let’s break it down. 

Model Prediction:

Philadelphia Phillies: 4.83
Toronto Blue Jays: 4.35

LineProphet.com predicted score and powerline

Power Line:

Phillies: -103
Blue Jays: +103

LineProphet.com powerline advantage

Vegas Line:

Phillies: -115
Blue Jays: +105

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Pitching Matchup:

Philadelphia Phillies – Jesús Luzardo (LHP)

Record: 5-1
ERA: 3.58
Strikeouts: 81

Toronto Blue Jays – Chris Bassitt (RHP)

Record: 5-3
ERA: 3.80
Strikeouts: 69

LineProphet.com pitching data

Luzardo has been a reliable arm for the Phillies, boasting a strong strikeout rate and maintaining a sub-4.00 ERA. Bassitt, while experienced, has shown some inconsistency this season, which could be exploited by the Phillies' lineup.

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Why We're Backing the Phillies:

The Phillies have demonstrated a potent offense, with key players delivering in clutch situations. Their recent performances indicate a team that's finding its rhythm, making them a favorable pick against the Blue Jays.

While the Power Line suggests a closer matchup, the Phillies' current form and Luzardo's pitching give them the edge.

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The Pick:

Given our model's prediction and the current Vegas line, there's value in backing the Phillies at -115.

✅ Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -115

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