🧨 Red Sox Look to Bounce Back in Seattle — Backing Boston -120 After a Blowout Loss

 Let’s not sugarcoat it — Boston got pummeled last night. An 8-0 drubbing at the hands of Luis Castillo and the Mariners has the Sox limping into Wednesday’s rubber match with something to prove. But rather than running from the fire, we’re walking straight into it.

And so is our model.

Despite Tuesday’s result, the LineProphet algorithm still gives Boston the edge in Game 3 — a significant one, in fact. Our projected score has the Red Sox taking this one 4.89 to 3.40, and the PowerLine makes it Boston -147. So when sportsbooks are still offering Boston -120, we’re not panicking — we’re betting.

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The Play: Boston Red Sox -120

PowerLine: Boston -147 

Vegas Line: Boston -120

LineProphet.com powerlines

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Model Prediction
Boston 4.89
Seattle 3.40

LineProphet.com score prediction

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What That Means

At -120, Boston’s implied win probability is about 54.5%. But our PowerLine implies they should be closer to 60%. That 5.5% gap is what we’re targeting — and when the math aligns with a bounce-back narrative, we don’t hesitate.

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But Didn’t Seattle Just Win 8-0?

Sure did. And that’s exactly why the value is here.

Boston was due for a dud, and Seattle took full advantage. But this is a different setup tonight. Boston’s handing the ball to Garrett Crochet, and if you’re into advanced stats, he’s the one you want. His xFIP, K%, and WAR are stronger than Castillo’s across the board. And Castillo — while great last night — still shows signs of regression with a high BABIP and concerning xFIP.

Meanwhile, Boston’s bats have outperformed Seattle’s in just about every major offensive category this season. Average, on-base, slugging, run production — they all lean Boston’s way.

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What About the Spread?

Seattle may still be a viable play on the run line (+1.5), especially with the model projecting a 1.49-run spread. So if you’re the type who likes both sides of a game, there’s some logic in backing Boston straight up and Seattle to keep it close.

But make no mistake — the value on the moneyline is on the Red Sox.

LineProphet.com H2H data

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Final Take

One blowout doesn’t derail the model. This is a good team in a bounce-back spot with a statistical edge across the board. You’re getting a -147 projection at a -120 price. That's value.

Let’s ride with Boston.

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