⚓ Anchors Down: Backing the Mariners at -115 vs. Guardians

The Mariners have quietly been one of the grittiest teams in baseball this season. Now they return home to open a series against the Cleveland Guardians, and we like where the numbers land. It’s not the flashiest value play on the board, but it’s a model-backed edge with enough to warrant a wager.

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Model Prediction

Seattle Mariners: 4.17
Cleveland Guardians: 3.93

LineProphet.com predicted score

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Power Line vs. Vegas Line

Power Line: Seattle -101
Vegas Line: Seattle -115

LineProphet.com powerlines

Implied probability of -115? That’s about 53.5%. Our model gives Seattle a 51% win probability, which aligns pretty closely—so this isn’t some screaming inefficiency, but it’s not a trap line either. The difference between -115 and -101 is small, but worth evaluating.

When we see a short favorite like this where the model and market are close, the decision usually comes down to matchup context. And in this one? Seattle has the edge.

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Why Seattle? It Starts With the Bats.

Let’s talk about that Mariners lineup.

They started the year looking like a “strikeout and pray” offense, but the script has flipped. Over the last two weeks, Seattle ranks top 10 in hard-hit rate and barrels per plate appearance, and they’ve scored 5+ runs in 6 of their last 9 games.

Julio Rodríguez is finding his swing, Cal Raleigh continues to be one of the most productive offensive catchers in baseball, and Josh Rojas has quietly been one of the best leadoff bats in the league over the last month.

They’re also doing damage late — Seattle ranks among the league leaders in runs scored from the 7th inning on since mid-May, a stat that becomes even more important in tight matchups like this one.

Cleveland’s lineup, on the other hand, is due for some regression. They’ve been over-performing their expected metrics, and their power numbers just aren’t sustainable without consistent traffic on the bases.

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The Pick

You’re not getting a massive model edge here — but you are getting a red-hot offense, a favorable situational matchup, and a price that doesn’t overextend.

✅ Bet: Seattle Mariners -115

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