⚾ Cardinals vs. Blue Jays – Tonight's Edge: St. Louis at -115

Our model gives the Cardinals a slight edge, and we’re rolling with them at -115, even though the Power Line sits at -103. Here's why STL has the momentum—and why we’re OK taking on the extra juice.

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Model Outlook

The LineProphet model predicts a 4.45–4.01 win for the Cardinals, assigning them a roughly 52.8% chance to win (since a -115 line implies about 53.5%). With the fair number at -103, we’re seeing a solid—but not massive—edge. The goal tonight: turn that edge into a win.

LineProphet.com power prediction

Pitching Matchup

St. Louis is going with Andre Pallante, whose MLB debut showed promise despite some control hiccups. That said, his strikeout-per-nine sits around 8.5, and he's held batters to a .268 wOBA in early action. Facing him is José Berríos for Toronto—an established arm with a 3.67 ERA and elite strikeout ability, but a career .265 average allowed to the current Cardinals roster. The two lineups are fairly matched, but Pallante's angles and dual-handed bats in St. Louis tilt power to the home side.

LineProphet.com pitching data

Trends & Team Form

The Cardinals are riding a hot streak—8–2 over their last ten, and 15–6 at home . They've shut down opponents on right-handed pitching, going 18–13 versus RHP, and are showing a strong blend of offense and bullpen depth. Meanwhile, Toronto has quietly gone 4–1 in their last five series , but their lineup lacks the push St. Louis has at Busch. Also worth noting: St. Louis has been mixed against LHP (4–6), which fits tonight’s game plan.

The Edge: Why Cardinals

Taking STL at -115 means paying a bit more than our power number, but the model’s slim edge is being amplified by matchup factors:

• Pallante brings cheap pitcher value that Toronto’s lineup hasn’t yet seen live.
• St. Louis is stacking advantages at home with confidence and timing.
• Toronto's outfielder Daulton Varsho is still on IL, costing them depth.

This is a classic case of adding model data to matchup value—worth the juice for a sharp play.

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The Pick

We’ll take the Cardinals at -115, running with the house team and a solid projection. Let’s let the edge do the work.

✅ Bet: St. Louis Cardinals -115